...buried in the Journal/NBC poll is a contradictory nugget: Registered
voters, by a 47 percent to 41 percent spread, would rather have
Republicans in charge of Congress. That’s the highest level of
preference for Republican control since the question was first posed 15
years ago. At a time when the White House is fond of the mantra that an
election is “a choice, not a referendum,” it appears that voters aren’t
ready to choose Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi over Speaker John Boehner.
And generic vote testing, which historically favors Democrats, is
about even: Democrats led 41 percent to 40 percent, including
respondents who leaned in one direction or the other, according to the
POLITICO/GWU poll.
“Nothing that exists in the public record today represents the kind
of numbers or momentum Democrats would need to pivot and take control of
the House,” said Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, whose
firm teamed with Hart Research to conduct the Journal/NBC poll.
The control-of-Congress result could be a blip, an anomaly. Or, it
could end up being a data point that helps explain a Republican victory
in the 2012 congressional elections.
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