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Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Latest polls predict huge loss for Democrats in November

With just two months to go before the November elections, pollsters and political scientists are predicting a blow-out loss for Democrats that could rival the Republican Revolution of 1994.

In a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, most-likely voters said — by a 9-point margin — that they want the midterms to produce a Congress controlled by Republicans, not Democrats.

“If that kind of lead holds, Republicans would almost certainly take back control of the House,” the Journal’s Gerald Seib writes.

A new ABC/Washington Post poll gave Republican congressional candidates a 53 percent to 40 percent advantage among “those most likely to vote.”

“Voters were also asked whether they think it is more important to have Democrats in charge of Congress to help support the president's policies or to have Republicans in control to serve as a check on Obama's agenda,” the Post’s Dan Balz and Jon Cohen write. “Here, 55 percent say they prefer Republicans, while 39 percent choose Democrats. The GOP's 16-point edge is double what it was in July.”

Handicapper Stuart Rothenberg warned of a tsunami Monday.

“National and local polls continue to show further deterioration in Democratic prospects,” Rothenberg told his clients. “Given that, we are increasing our target of likely Republican gains from 28-33 seats to 37-42 seats, with the caveat that substantially larger GOP gains in the 45-55 seat range are quite possible.”

At this weekend’s annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, three of the five forecasts predicted that Republicans would gain majority control of the House of Representatives, The Huffington Post reported. (Read more here at Politico)

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