The Gallup analysis of party affiliation shows blue fading in some states. The number of solidly Democratic states dropped from 30 in 2008 to 14 in 2010 as politically competitive states rose from 10 to 18.
A Gallup analysis released Monday shows that as the nation heads toward the 2012 presidential elections, the number of solidly Democratic states has fallen by half while the number of politically competitive states has almost doubled since 2008.
The analysis of party affiliation, based on telephone surveys, shows that Democrats have fallen from 2008, which was the highest level for the party in at least two decades, according to the polling organization. Democrats’ strength is generally back to where it was in the 2000’s, before wars, rising oil prices and the recession eroded Republicans’ standing. At that point, the parties were about even.
The data show a pitted road ahead for President Obama’s reelection efforts and difficulties for Democrats’ efforts to hold the Senate and recapture the House of Representatives since every state and the District of Columbia had fewer residents identifying as Democratic, or as independent but leaning Democratic, in 2010 than in 2008. The greatest declines were in Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Maine and Hawaii; the smallest were in North Dakota and Mississippi.
In 2008, 30 states were solidly Democratic, and that fell to 14 by 2010. The number of competitive states rose from 10 to 18, according to the findings. (continues here)