The Fix now projects that the 2012 race for the House is likely to be close to a draw, and there is even a fair chance that Republicans will add to their biggest majority in six decades on Tuesday.
Below, The Fix is updating the ratings of 10 House races, with most of them moving in the GOP’s direction.
In recent weeks, as Mitt Romney has gained a few points in the
presidential race, a similar but slight shift has been happening at the
House level: The generic ballot has tightened.
While Democrats had built a modest advantage on the generic ballot (a
measure of whether people prefer a generic Republican or a generic
Democrat) when President Obama built some momentum in September, that
advantage is basically gone now.
In part because of this, Democrats have seen their candidates in
conservative-leaning districts suffer. Friday, we are moving several
red-district Democrats into more vulnerable ratings, including Reps. Ron
Barber (D-Ariz.), Mark Critz (D-Pa.), Jim Matheson (D-Utah), Ben
Chandler (D-Ky.) and Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.).
And because those seats have shifted, it is no longer a foregone conclusion that Democrats will gain seats this year. (Full Story and graphics)